Köln came from behind to edge Gladbach 2-1 in a match that didn't quite follow the script either model or history had written. Jóhannesson put the home side ahead early in the first half at the 26-minute mark, but Scally levelled things up for Gladbach just before the break. The decisive moment came in the 67th minute when El Mala restored Köln's lead, with the assist credited to Maina, and that proved enough to see out the win.

Our model had leaned toward a 1-2 scoreline in Gladbach's favour—giving the visitors a 36% chance of victory compared to Köln's 40%—so we got the direction wrong here. What we did pick up on was the likelihood of goals; both teams arrived in genuine trouble near the bottom of the table, and that desperation showed up on the pitch in a proper contest. The pattern of recent head-to-heads and the attacking shape of both sides suggested a fairly open game, and in that sense the three-goal total tracked with what felt plausible going in. Köln's home record and Gladbach's decent form away from home painted a competitive fixture, just one where we weighted things slightly differently.

In the end, Köln's intensity at home proved the difference. A one-goal margin isn't a landslide, and Gladbach never stopped fighting, but the hosts held on when it mattered. It's the kind of result that sits in the tail of the probability distribution—not impossible, just not the favourite—and that's exactly where tight relegation battles tend to land.