Köln and Bremen served up a draw when our model had backed the home side to edge it. Dallinga opened from the spot in the eighth minute, and Maina made it two just three minutes later with Skhiri setting him up—a flying start that looked to confirm the early prediction of a Köln win. But Bremen weren't finished. Füllkrug pulled one back in the 69th minute, and that's how it stayed: 1-1 at the final whistle.

Our model had set a draw probability at just 30%, so this outcome wasn't the lean we'd flagged before kickoff. We'd predicted 2-1 to Köln based on their strong recent home form and Bremen's mixed away record, but the match took a different shape. Köln dominated early and could've been out of sight, yet Bremen's resilience in the second half saw them claw back into it. It's the kind of result that sits outside the primary scenario but wasn't an outlier—draws happen regularly in the Bundesliga, especially between mid-table sides where motivation can dip.

The goals themselves tracked broadly with what we'd expected: both teams found the net, and the game was lively enough in the opening stages. What we'd underestimated was Bremen's ability to stay compact after the break and grab a foothold when chances came. It's a good reminder that early dominance doesn't always translate to the full ninety, and that low-motivation fixtures can deliver surprise levelling acts. Neither side will be thrilled, but for our model, it's a clean miss on the scoreline—one of those matches where the outcome lands outside the prediction despite reasonable logic behind it.