Academico Viseu came away with a 2-1 win at home against Estoril, and our model had called both the result and the exact scoreline beforehand. It wasn't a heavy favorite's performance, though—this was the model's lean among a genuinely competitive set of outcomes, with Academico Viseu given a 43% chance to win going in.

The match unfolded pretty much in line with what the pre-match numbers suggested. Cihan Kahraman gave Academico Viseu the lead in the 29th minute off an assist from Anthony Correia, and it looked like that early cushion might hold. Estoril pulled level in the 56th minute through Rafik Guitane, who was set up by João Carvalho, which kept things properly in the balance. The decisive moment came late: Soufiane Messeguem restored Academico Viseu's advantage in the 88th minute, courtesy of Alejandro Mestanza's assist, and they held on from there. It was a tight game that showed exactly why the model had sized up both teams as realistic contenders before kickoff, rather than backing one side heavily.

Getting the exact score right is a solid outcome, especially when that prediction was handed out at 43% probability—it wasn't the single most likely scenario, just the most likely one we felt confident enough to call. The actual play reflected the xG picture we'd flagged: Academico Viseu had the quality edge and converted it into three points, but Estoril stayed competitive and threatened to nick something from the match themselves. That's football at this level played out almost exactly as the models had sketched it.