📊 Recent Form
Alanyaspor
Beşiktaş
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 37%. Beşiktaş edge it at 36% against 30% for the draw and 34% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Beşiktaş at 36% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 49% — a gap against us of 13 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Alanyaspor upset Beşiktaş 1-0 at home, claiming all three points through a 73rd-minute finish from N. Lima, who was set up by F. Hadergjonaj. It wasn't the scoreline our model had in mind—we'd backed a 1-2 away win for Beşiktaş—but it was well within the range of plausible outcomes we'd flagged before kickoff. Our model gave Alanyaspor a 34% chance of winning, so while we didn't tip the upset, it wasn't a shock in the mathematical sense.
Going in, the underlying numbers favored Beşiktaş slightly. Their expected goals projection sat at 1.57 compared to Alanyaspor's 1.19, and the model leaned toward a Beşiktaş win at 36% probability. The match itself played out tighter than those pre-match metrics suggested—there wasn't a flood of chances or a dominant display from either side—but Alanyaspor made their moment count when it mattered. A late goal often tilts the narrative, but there's nothing unusual about a team with an xG of 1.19 putting one away; it's just variance doing what variance does.
Our prediction didn't land, and that's worth being straight about. We thought there'd be more goals and a Beşiktaş edge. What actually happened was a cagier contest that broke Beşiktaş's way only insofar as they couldn't convert their chances, while Alanyaspor did. It's a reminder that good underlying stats don't guarantee outcomes—and that's why we track these misses alongside the hits.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor Win Value | 11/4 3.75 | 25% | 34% | +9% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 30% | +4% |
| Beşiktaş Win | 10/11 1.91 | 49% | 36% | -13% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Alanyaspor (7d) vs Beşiktaş (2d) — Alanyaspor significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Alanyaspor xG 1.19 | Beşiktaş xG 1.57
Projected: 24% / 34% / 42%
H2H: 2W-4D-2L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-4D-2L for Alanyaspor in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.