📊 Recent Form
Alanyaspor
Erzurumspor FK
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Alanyaspor at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 26% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Alanyaspor at 54% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 47% — a gap in our favour of 7 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK played out a goalless stalemate in Antalya, with neither side able to find the back of the net despite the stakes and pre-match shape suggesting otherwise. It's a result that leaves both teams exactly where they started — Alanyaspor frustrated after dropping points at home, Erzurumspor FK breathing a bit easier in their relegation battle, though still without the win they desperately needed.
Our model predicted a 2-0 win for the home side and assigned the draw just a 26% chance. That didn't materialize. The forecast was built on Alanyaspor's solid home form and attacking output, set against Erzurumspor FK's fragile away record and relegation-zone struggles. On paper it looked like the kind of mismatch that should produce goals. Instead, the match stayed tight and neither team broke through — a reminder that form and averages don't always translate when the whistle goes. Erzurumspor's desperation to avoid the drop may have made them harder to break down than their numbers alone suggested, while Alanyaspor couldn't quite find the cutting edge at home.
It's the kind of afternoon that tests any model: the fundamentals looked solid beforehand, the underlying stats were readable, but football doesn't always cooperate with the arithmetic. Both teams will take stock and move on, though Alanyaspor will feel they should've done more with home advantage in the pocket.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor Win Value | 1/1 1.99 | 47% | 54% | +7% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 26% | -3% |
| Erzurumspor FK Win | 11/4 3.80 | 24% | 20% | -4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Erzurumspor FK in relegation danger (P14, only 3 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Alanyaspor solid at home (DWDW), averaging 1.68 goals scored and only 1.19 conceded overall; Erzurumspor FK poor away (LDL), averaging just 0.71 goals scored and conceding 1.7.
H2H: High-scoring history (3.2 goals/game avg) across 5 meetings, but Erzurumspor's current attacking output is far weaker than in those historic meetings.
Stakes: Erzurumspor FK in relegation danger which can cut both ways — desperation may push them forward but also leaves them exposed defensively on the road.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H has historically been high-scoring (avg 3.2 goals), with shared wins and competitive games; however, Erzurumspor FK's current form and away performances are significantly weaker than in those prior meetings, diminishing their scoring threat on the road.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
