📊 Recent Form
Alanyaspor
Göztepe
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Alanyaspor edge it at 42% against 28% for the draw and 30% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 6 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Alanyaspor and Göztepe served up a proper end-to-end affair at Bahçeşehir Stadyumu, with both sides refusing to settle for anything less than a point. Göztepe struck first through Rhaldney in the 28th minute with an assist from A. Antunes, but Alanyaspor levelled when Fernandes finished in the 63rd minute after a Bikoue setup. The match tilted sharply when Juan converted a penalty for Göztepe in the 73rd minute, only for Makouta to restore parity four minutes later, taking his assist from I. Hagi. The final whistle came with the score locked at 2-2.
Our model predicted a 1-0 Alanyaspor win and leaned toward a Alanyaspor victory at 42%, with a draw at 28%. The draw actually happened — which carried just over a quarter of our pre-match probability. We got the direction wrong; the match was always going to be tight, but this time both sides found the net twice. Coming into the game, form suggested Alanyaspor might edge it, and Göztepe's injury troubles looked set to tell over 90 minutes. What unfolded instead was a more open contest where Göztepe showed enough to rescue a point despite their squad depth issues, while Alanyaspor couldn't quite capitalise on home advantage.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor Win | 6/5 2.16 | 43% | 42% | -1% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.35 | 28% | 28% | ±0% |
| Göztepe Win | 9/4 3.22 | 29% | 30% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Göztepe in relegation danger (P17/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Alanyaspor average 1.34 scored/0.93 conceded; Göztepe average 1.44 scored/1.99 conceded with heavy injury list
H2H: 4 draws in last 8, avg 2.1 goals/game, last home H2H ended 1-0
Stakes: Göztepe in relegation battle (P17) provides motivation but injuries severely hamper their squad depth
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
4 draws in 8 meetings makes this a textbook draw-prone fixture; Alanyaspor hold the edge with 3 wins to Göztepe's 1, and recent home H2H produced a 1-0 and 1-1 — consistently low-scoring affairs.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.