Amed got the job done against Konyaspor with a late winner, taking the match 1-0 in what turned out to be a tighter contest than expected. M. Diagne broke the deadlock in the 86th minute with an assist from D. Saba, and that single goal proved enough to seal three points for the home side.

Our model had backed Amed to win with a 58% lean on the result, so we got the direction right—but we'd overshot on the scoreline. We'd predicted a 2-0 win, reckoning Amed's strong home form would click against a Konyaspor side low on confidence. The early signs pointed that way: Amed came in chasing a top-two spot and playing with real momentum, while Konyaspor were struggling near the foot of the table. The match played out closer than we'd expected, though, and a single second-half finish was all either side managed to muster.

It's a solid result for Amed regardless of the margin, and they'll take the three points as they push for their ambitions. For Konyaspor, it's another defeat in a difficult run, though they might draw some encouragement from keeping it tight for 85 minutes. Our model leaned the right way but misjudged the execution—sometimes one goal is all that separates the teams, even when one's form looks much sharper than the other's.