Anderlecht came from behind to beat PAOK 3-2 in a dramatic Europa League encounter that swung wildly across ninety minutes. L. Petrot put the designated home side ahead early, but A. Zivkovic levelled for PAOK just before the half-hour, assisted by Taison. The match tipped decisively Anderlecht's way after the break: L. Ambros restored their lead on the stroke of half-time with help from G. Biancone, then D. Sikan made it three midway through the second half, set up by M. Cvetkovic. PAOK pulled one back through A. Jeremejeff's penalty in the 88th minute, but the visitors then fell apart, with Zivkovic sent off that same minute and Jeremejeff dismissed late in injury time.

Our model leaned toward a 1-0 Anderlecht win, giving them 43 per cent odds — the favourite but far from a sure thing in a match where a draw sat at 27 per cent and PAOK at 30 per cent. We got the result direction right but missed the scoreline badly. Pre-kickoff, the second-leg stakes and Anderlecht's defensive home record suggested a tight, low-scoring affair. Instead, the match opened up spectacularly from the first whistle, with both sides attacking in waves and the game turning on fine margins, late pressure, and disciplinary breakdowns rather than the compact, cagey encounter we'd anticipated. PAOK's fighting spirit kept them in it until the red cards swung the contest definitively, but what unfolded was a far more entertaining encounter than the defensive grind the data had pointed toward.