Anderlecht vs St. Truiden
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht Win | 11/10 2.13 | 44% | 43% | -1% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.70 | 26% | 17% | -9% |
| St. Truiden Win Value | 2/1 3.10 | 30% | 40% | +10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Anderlecht in relegation danger (P4/6)
- 🎯 St. Truiden chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Anderlecht poor at home (DLLWL), low attack output 1.54 avg scored; St. Truiden better recent form with key wins in last 5
H2H: 6 Anderlecht wins historically but most recent meeting was a 2-0 St. Truiden away victory — significant momentum shift
Stakes: Anderlecht desperately need points to avoid relegation but poor home form undermines this; St. Truiden highly motivated chasing top-2
Betting: BTTS supported by both teams having attacking output and Anderlecht's defensive weakness; Over 2.5 supported by xG model (2.01 vs 2.15) and H2H avg of 2.8 goals
⚔️ Head to Head
Anderlecht historically dominant in this fixture (6W/1D/1L) but the most recent meeting saw St. Truiden win 2-0 away, suggesting a momentum reversal that aligns with current season form disparity.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Anderlecht are conceding nearly 2.5 goals per game and despite their struggles will push forward due to relegation pressure, making it highly likely they find the net at least once. St. Truiden's attack has been productive in recent wins (4-1, 2-1, 2-0) and their xG of 2.15 supports scoring multiple times in this fixture.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The predicted scoreline of 1-2 produces exactly 3 total goals, supporting the over 2.5 outcome. Combined xG of 4.16, H2H average of 2.8 goals per game, Anderlecht's leaky defence, and St. Truiden's in-form attack all point to a game exceeding the 2.5 goals threshold.