🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Union St. Gilloise at 51%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 20% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 💀 Anderlecht already relegated (P4) — nothing to play for
- 🏆 Union St. Gilloise in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Anderlecht patchy at home (WLWD), Union superb away (WWDD) with only 0.47 goals conceded per game
H2H: Union win 4 of last 8, avg 1.4 goals/game — tight, low-scoring fixture historically
Stakes: Anderlecht relegated (nothing to play for), Union in title race (everything to play for)
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Union St. Gilloise have dominated recent H2H with 4 wins in 8 meetings, including three straight wins before Anderlecht's narrow 1-0 in November 2025. Fixtures consistently stay under 2 total goals — low-scoring rivalry.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.