📊 Recent Form
Antwerp
Charleroi
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Charleroi at 52%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 21% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp Win | 3/1 4.10 | 23% | 27% | +4% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.85 | 24% | 21% | -3% |
| Charleroi Win | 8/11 1.75 | 53% | 52% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Antwerp in relegation danger (P13, only 3 pt cushion)
- 🎯 Charleroi chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Antwerp WLLLLLDWWL (avg scored 1.26, conceded 2.44); Charleroi WWWWLWWWWL (avg scored 1.87, conceded 0.81, perfect 5/5 away wins)
H2H: Charleroi dominant — 5 wins in last 8, three of last four meetings at Antwerp ended with Antwerp failing to score
Stakes: Antwerp in relegation danger (P13, +3 cushion) but poor home form suggests pressure hurts rather than helps; Charleroi chasing top 2 and highly motivated
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Charleroi have won 5 of the last 8 H2H meetings and are dominant in the away role — three of the last four fixtures played at Antwerp ended with Antwerp failing to score, making a Charleroi clean-sheet outcome the most historically consistent result.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.