📊 Recent Form
Antwerp
Union St. Gilloise
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Union St. Gilloise at 53%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 21% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Union St. Gilloise at 53% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 57% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 82/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp Win Value | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 26% | +7% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.00 | 24% | 21% | -3% |
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 3/5 1.60 | 57% | 53% | -4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Antwerp mid-table (P11) — low motivation
- 🏆 Union St. Gilloise in title race (P2)
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Antwerp (7d) vs Union St. Gilloise (2d) — Antwerp significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: USG on fire (WWWWW recent, 3.34 avg goals scored, 0.81 conceded); Antwerp struggling (30% win rate, 2.07 avg conceded) but well-rested
H2H: USG dominant (5 wins in last 8), high-scoring history avg 3.4 goals/game, away team historically dominant in this fixture
Stakes: Antwerp mid-table with low motivation; USG in title race (P2) with strong incentive — but severe fatigue risk (only 2 days rest)
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
USG have won 5 of the last 8 meetings with the away side dominant; recent scorelines include 0-4, 5-1 (both ways), and 2-1 USG wins — a high-scoring, USG-leaning fixture historically
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.