📊 Recent Form
Arezzo
Benevento
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 38%. Benevento edge it at 37% against 31% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 10 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Benevento came to the Stadio Città di Castello and turned in a commanding display, dismantling Arezzo 3-0 to secure a comprehensive away victory. The visitors broke the deadlock in the 49th minute through Antonis Siatounis, who was set up by David Okereke. Okereke then got in on the act himself in the 66th minute, doubling Benevento's lead. With the game effectively settled, G. Mignani added a third in the 87th minute, again assisted by Okereke, to put a convincing gloss on the result.
Our model leaned toward a Benevento win, assigning them a 37% win probability before kickoff, which made it the most likely outcome at the time. We'd predicted a tight 0-1 scoreline based on the form of both sides — Arezzo averaging 1.02 goals scored and Benevento 1.70 in attack but 1.32 conceded away — and the expectation of a cagey encounter between two mid-table clubs with mixed recent runs. The result direction was right, but the scale wasn't. Benevento's attacking efficiency and Arezzo's defensive fragility came together to produce a performance considerably more one-sided than the numbers had suggested.
The Okereke show was the real story here. The Benevento forward was involved in all three goals — bagging two himself while setting up the other — and exposed gaps in the Arezzo shape that the pre-match indicators hadn't flagged. On the day, pure class and sharpness won out over statistical precedent, and Benevento took full advantage.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arezzo Win | 15/8 2.89 | 32% | 32% | ±0% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.18 | 29% | 31% | +2% |
| Benevento Win | 11/8 2.40 | 39% | 37% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Arezzo mid-table (P9) — low motivation
- 😴 Benevento mid-table (P8) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Arezzo averaging 1.02 goals scored, Benevento 1.70 scored but 1.32 conceded away. Both on inconsistent recent runs.
H2H: Limited data — defaulting to model and form signals.
Stakes: Both clubs mid-table (P8/P9) with no promotion or relegation pressure — classic low-motivation draw scenario.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data available — no strong H2H trend to apply, defaulting to current form and statistical model which strongly points to 1-1.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
