Argentina vs Switzerland

Argentina and Switzerland played out a tense knockout encounter that ended 1-1 after extra time, before Argentina prevailed on penalties. Our model had predicted a 3-1 Argentina win with a 72% lean toward a decisive victory, so we got this one wrong on both the scoreline and the result direction—the 19% probability we'd assigned to a draw is what came to pass.

Mac Allister gave Argentina the perfect start in the tenth minute, converting from Messi's assist, and for long stretches the match looked to be tracking toward the heavy Argentina dominance we'd anticipated. But Switzerland showed real resilience. Ndoye leveled things up in the 67th minute off Rodriguez's pass, and from there the fixture tightened considerably. A red card for Embolo in the 72nd minute seemed to have swung it decisively toward Argentina, yet they couldn't kill it off in normal time. Alvarez finally restored the lead in the 112th minute—assisted by Lopez—and Martinez added a fourth goal deep in extra time to secure it.

Before kickoff, the model had weighted Argentina heavily based on their dominant recent form, Switzerland's away vulnerabilities, and the knockout stakes. The match did play out largely in Argentina's favor on balance, but Switzerland's defensive discipline and sheer character kept them in it far longer than the pre-match numbers suggested they would. Sometimes a team absorbs pressure, steals a goal, and forces the issue further than the probabilities predicted—and that's exactly what happened here.