Roma edged past Atalanta 2-1 in a match that swung decisively in the final stages. Atalanta struck first through Éderson José dos Santos in the 47th minute, but Roma turned it around with two quick goals: Mario Hermoso levelled in the 89th minute with an assist from Matias Soule, then Soule himself sealed it deep into stoppage time at 90+3, set up by Paulo Dybala. A red card for Atalanta's Gianluca Gaetano in the 90+7th minute capped a tough evening for the visitors.

Our model's most likely outcome before kickoff was a 2-1 Roma win at 54% probability. That's exactly how it played out, though it's worth stressing that 54% is a lean among plausible outcomes, not a confident forecast. The prediction hinged on Roma's attacking prowess at the Stadio Olimpico balanced against Atalanta's defensive solidity and counter-threat—a needle-threading call rather than a slam dunk. The match itself bore out that tension: Atalanta's early goal suggested they could replicate their compact, efficient form from recent games, but Roma's title-race motivation and home intensity eventually told over the ninety minutes.

The late drama—two goals in quick succession and a sending-off—tilted the narrative sharply Roma's way, though the fundamental shape matched what our model had sketched. It was a narrow, contested affair settled by Roma's superior resources and hunger when it mattered most.