📊 Recent Form
Atalanta
Bologna
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Atalanta at 57%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 30% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–1 points to a draw while the probabilities favour Atalanta. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
Across 13 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as low at 49/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bologna's decisive 78th-minute goal from Riccardo Orsolini, assisted by Jens Rowe, proved the difference in a low-intensity contest that defied our pre-match expectations. The away side's single strike was enough to claim all three points against an Atalanta side that created little threat throughout. What unfolded was a match defined more by caution than ambition—exactly the kind of deadlock scenario that both teams, locked in mid-table obscurity at positions 7 and 8, appeared content to accept.
Our model predicted a 1-1 draw with Atalanta favored at 57% to win, missing the actual outcome entirely. The analysis flagged several factors that should have constrained scoring: both sides lacked motivation given their dead-rubber status, the historical head-to-head pattern suggested low-scoring affairs, and Atalanta's recent form, while respectable on paper, masked a mid-table drift. Yet Bologna's away form—they'd won four of their last five on the road before this match—offered a clue we weighted insufficiently. While Atalanta's attacking metrics (1.54 goals per game) appeared solid, they failed to convert their home advantage into meaningful chances, and Bologna's superior defensive record on the road (1.92 goals conceded overall) proved more relevant than expected.
The 1-0 scoreline ultimately reflects a match that played out closer to Bologna's recent traveling form than to Atalanta's overall averages. Our prediction underestimated the visitors' capacity to steal a result and overestimated the likelihood of a share of the spoils.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta Win | 4/6 1.67 | 57% | 57% | ±0% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 4.15 | 23% | 30% | +7% |
| Bologna Win | 7/2 4.75 | 20% | 13% | -7% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Atalanta mid-table (P7) — low motivation
- 😴 Bologna mid-table (P8) — low motivation
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick downgraded to draw — risk factors detected for Atalanta
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Atalanta averaging 1.54 scored/1.45 conceded overall, Bologna 1.2 scored/1.92 conceded but with strong recent away results (WLLWW)
H2H: Low-scoring pattern historically (~2 goals/game avg), Atalanta won last two meetings 2-0 and 0-2 (reversed), Bologna competitive throughout
Stakes: Both teams are dead-rubber mid-table (P7 vs P8) — low motivation dampens expected intensity and reduces likelihood of an open high-scoring affair
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 5 meetings have all been low-scoring with multiple 2-0, 1-1, and 1-2 results — avg ~2 goals per game, results split fairly evenly with Bologna slightly ahead overall but Atalanta winning the two most recent encounters
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
