Atalanta made light work of Pafos in the Conference League knockout, running out comfortable 3-1 winners in a match that got away from the visitors early and never looked back. Elmas opened the scoring inside the first minute, set up by Raspadori, before Raspadori himself doubled the lead from the penalty spot just seventeen minutes later. By the time Scamacca added a third before half-time — assisted by De Ketelaere — the tie was effectively over as a contest. Pafos grabbed a consolation through Biel in the 88th minute, courtesy of Anderson Silva's assist, but it came too late to make any real dent in the scoreline.

Our model predicted a 2-0 win for Atalanta, which gave the result direction — but underestimated the threat the hosts would pose in open play. The designated home side's 52% win probability was a lean rather than a confident call, and while we nailed the outcome, the actual scoreline was a goal wider. Pre-kickoff, we'd flagged Pafos's vulnerability away at elite venues, and they certainly looked stretched once Atalanta got rolling. The early damage was decisive; two goals inside twenty minutes meant Atalanta could control the tempo from there, and a third before the break left Pafos chasing shadows.

The clean sheet we'd flagged as a realistic outcome didn't materialise, but that's the nature of knockout football when one side takes such a commanding grip. Atalanta's quality shone through, and they booked their place in the next round in convincing fashion.