Atalanta made light work of Venezia to secure a comfortable 3-1 victory, though the scoreline proved wider than our pre-match forecast had suggested. The hosts came flying out of the blocks, with Kessié breaking the deadlock as early as the fourth minute courtesy of an assist from Krstović. Things got worse for Venezia just two minutes later when Krstović himself found the net, this time with Elmas providing the setup. By the half-hour mark, Krstović had his second of the afternoon to extend Atalanta's advantage to three. Venezia pulled one back through Hainaut's goal in the 37th minute, but there was no way back from there. The match was settled well before the closing stages, though things did turn fractious late on when Elmas picked up a red card in the 89th minute.

Our model had called a 2-0 win for Atalanta at 59% probability — the result direction was spot on, but we'd underestimated the hosts' attacking output. Pre-kickoff, we'd flagged Atalanta's solid home form and Venezia's weak away record, expecting a measured performance. The early onslaught was consistent with Atalanta's home strength, but Krstović's brace meant the attacking threat landed harder than the 2-0 scoreline we'd predicted. That said, the clean sheet prediction fell short too — Venezia did breach the defence, even if the damage was already done by then. A partial miss, but one where the fundamental lean on the result held up.