Austria vs Tunisia
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Win | 8/15 1.53 | 61% | 37% | -24% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 4.00 | 23% | 41% | +18% |
| Tunisia Win Value | 5/1 6.11 | 16% | 22% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Austria balanced at 1g scored/1g conceded per game; Tunisia averaging 1.82 scored but only 30% win rate with heavy draw tendency. H2H: Limited data. Stakes: International friendly — low motivation, no competitive pressure for either side, both mid-table in world standings. Betting: BTTS supported by Tunisia's attacking output and Austria's open style; Under 2.5 supported by low xG values (0.79 and 0.75) and friendly context suppressing intensity.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to establish a meaningful trend between these two nations.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Tunisia have shown consistent ability to score (1.82 avg) and Austria's defensive record concedes roughly 1 per game, making a Tunisia goal very likely. Austria similarly tend to find the net in balanced fixtures and Tunisia concede 1.45 per game on average, supporting Austria scoring as well. Both defences are good but not impenetrable, making BTTS the probable outcome.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Despite both teams being capable of scoring, the combined xG of just 1.54 and the friendly nature of the match — where teams tend to be cautious and avoid overextension — point toward a low-intensity game staying under 2.5 goals. The model's top scorelines are all low-scoring and the statistical distribution heavily favours two goals or fewer.