Auxerre and Le Mans cancelled each other out in a 1-1 draw that left both relegation-threatened sides still searching for breathing room. Le Mans struck first when Buades finished after the break in the 48th minute, assisted by Bretelle, but Auxerre levelled eight minutes later through Archer to secure a point neither team could afford to throw away.

Our model had backed a 2-1 Auxerre win before kickoff, assigning the draw just a 24% probability. That's a miss on both the scoreline and the result direction. The pre-match lean reflected Auxerre's strong home form set against Le Mans' poor record on the road, alongside their historical edge in head-to-head clashes. The model also noted the high stakes—both clubs fighting relegation—which typically breeds intensity and chances. What actually unfolded was a tighter, more cautious affair that neither side could break open, even with so much on the line.

A draw on the day keeps both clubs in the scrap. It's not what we predicted, but it's exactly the kind of outcome that tight, desperate matches can produce—especially when two teams know a loss hurts more than a win helps. The model's miss here is a clean one: we got the direction wrong and the exact score wrong, and that's fair to own.