📊 Recent Form
Auxerre
Stade Brestois 29
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Auxerre at 47%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Auxerre at 47% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 33% — a gap in our favour of 14 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Auxerre came from behind to beat Stade Brestois 29 2-1 at home, turning a first-half deficit into a hard-fought win that'll be crucial given their tight relegation battle. Mboup put Brest ahead early on with a finish from Chotard's assist in the 23rd minute, but Auxerre levelled just after the restart when Archer tapped in from Namaso's setup on 46 minutes. The decisive moment came in the 83rd minute when Le Guen turned the ball into his own net, handing Auxerre all three points.
Our model predicted exactly this scoreline heading into the match, though it's worth being honest about the confidence levels: we gave Auxerre a 47% chance of winning, so while we nailed the outcome and the 2-1 result, this was leaning into their favour rather than a strong conviction. The match played out in character with the pre-kickoff expectations—Auxerre showed real desperation and fighting spirit at home with relegation looming, while Brest's defensive solidity didn't quite hold up away from their own ground. It's the kind of result where the team with everything to lose found a way through, and our model's read of the situation proved spot on, even if the probability reflected genuine uncertainty about which way it'd go.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre Win Value | 15/8 2.87 | 33% | 47% | +14% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 27% | ±0% |
| Stade Brestois 29 Win | 11/8 2.40 | 40% | 26% | -14% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Auxerre in relegation danger (P15, only 1 pt cushion)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Ligue 1 history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Auxerre struggling overall (W25%) but desperate at home with relegation on line; Brest compact (conceding 1.28/game) but inconsistent away
H2H: Balanced — Auxerre won 3-0 last time out in March 2026, avg 2.3 goals/game across last 8 meetings
Stakes: Auxerre in relegation danger — significant motivation boost; Brest mid-table, normal stakes
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Auxerre won the last meeting 3-0 in March 2026, but Brest lead the overall H2H 4-2-2. Average of 2.3 goals per game historically — moderate-scoring encounters with no clear dominant pattern.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.