📊 Recent Form
Ayr Utd
Arbroath
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Ayr Utd at 47%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 29% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Ayr Utd at 47% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 37% — a gap in our favour of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 74/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Ayr United brushed aside Arbroath with a commanding 2-0 home win that proved sharper than our pre-match model had anticipated. B. Summers opened the scoring just before the break with a well-taken finish from K. Mitchell's assist, and R. Taylor sealed it in the 79th minute to settle a match that felt like it might tighten up as the second half wore on. The hosts controlled proceedings without needing to do anything spectacular, which is often the hallmark of a side playing properly at home against inconsistent visitors.
Our prediction of a 2-1 scoreline caught the result direction correctly—Ayr's win was well within the model's expected range—but we'd assigned them only a 47% chance of taking three points and leaned towards a tighter margin or even a draw. That lean reflected what we saw in the pre-match data: Ayr's strong home form offset by Arbroath's unpredictable away performances, and a head-to-head record crammed with draws. The match didn't unfold that way. Instead, Ayr were ruthless in front of goal and Arbroath never found the net, which meant no both-teams-to-score and no over-2.5-goals scenario we'd flagged. It's a good reminder that even with strong form signals, individual matches can swing on clinical finishing and defensive lapses—and this one broke Ayr's way more decisively than the model's probabilities suggested they would.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd Win Value | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 47% | +10% |
| Draw | 2/1 3.00 | 31% | 29% | -2% |
| Arbroath Win | 7/4 2.80 | 32% | 24% | -8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ayr Utd dominant at home (WWWWW, 2.79 avg scored), Arbroath inconsistent away (LWW recent)
H2H: 4 draws and 4 Ayr wins in last 8 — zero Arbroath wins, draw pattern very strong in recent head-to-heads
Stakes: Both sides mid-table, fresh standings, no promotion/relegation pressure — classic low-motivation draw scenario
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Three of the last four H2H meetings ended 1-1, with the overall record showing four draws and four Ayr wins — Arbroath have never won this fixture in eight attempts but consistently frustrate Ayr at both venues.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.