📊 Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
Willem II
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes AZ Alkmaar a 73% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have AZ Alkmaar at 73% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 83% — a gap against us of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 70/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
AZ are flying right now, nine wins from their last ten and sitting top of the Eredivisie with everything to play for. Willem II, meanwhile, are deep in relegation trouble and arrive in patchy form, with a heavily disrupted squad missing Culum, Didillon Hodl, Lachkar, Schuurman, and Zarrouk through various injuries. That is a lot of absences for a side already struggling. The h2h leans AZ's way too. A comfortable 3-0 home win looks the right call, with the goals going one way only.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 1/7 1.14 | 83% | 73% | -10% |
| Draw | 7/1 8.25 | 11% | 12% | +1% |
| Willem II Win Value | 14/1 15.38 | 6% | 15% | +9% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 AZ Alkmaar in title race (P1)
- 🆘 Willem II in relegation danger (P16/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: AZ in outstanding form — WWWWWWWDLW overall, last 5 home results include big wins; Willem II LDLLWWDL, struggling away.
H2H: 3.6 avg goals/game across last 8 meetings, AZ win 4, draw 2, Willem II win 2 — balanced historically but AZ dominant at home.
Stakes: AZ chasing the title (P1), Willem II fighting relegation (P16) — both motivated but quality gap is decisive.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings average 3.6 goals per game. AZ won 4, drew 2, Willem II won 2. AZ dominant at home (4-1 in Dec 2021), though Willem II snatched a surprise 1-2 win at AZ in Nov 2024. Overall H2H is competitive but AZ's current form and ELO advantage point firmly to a home win.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
