📊 Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
Willem II
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes AZ Alkmaar a 73% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have AZ Alkmaar at 73% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 83% — a gap against us of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 70/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II played out a 1–1 draw at the AFAS Stadion, leaving both sides with a point they'll view very differently. Jordy Clasie put AZ ahead in the 32nd minute with an assist from Mexx Meerdink, but Willem II refused to roll over. Devin Haen equalised with just under ten minutes remaining, courtesy of an assist from Uriël van Aalst, to earn his side a valuable away draw.
Our model's pre-match prediction of a 3–0 AZ win missed the mark entirely. We'd leaned heavily on AZ's form and their comfortable league position against a Willem II side struggling at the bottom of the table, assigning the draw just a 12% probability. That proved a significant overestimate of how comfortable this would be for the home side. AZ dominated possession and territory for long stretches, but Willem II's resilience and shape held firm when it mattered, and they showed enough going forward to snatch a leveller when the opportunity came. The attacking output never arrived as expected, and a side in title contention couldn't find the cutting edge to put the game beyond reach.
It's a reminder that even well-founded expectations about form and league position don't always translate into the scoreline you'd pencil in. AZ will feel they left points on the table; Willem II will take the result as a morale boost in their fight for survival. Our model got the direction of the outcome wrong, and that's fair criticism of how heavily it weighted the gap between the two sides.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 1/7 1.14 | 83% | 73% | -10% |
| Draw | 7/1 8.50 | 11% | 12% | +1% |
| Willem II Win Value | 14/1 15.25 | 6% | 15% | +9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 AZ Alkmaar in title race (P1)
- 🆘 Willem II in relegation danger (P16/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: AZ averaging 2.78 goals scored and 1.02 conceded at home, on a strong run (WWWWWW at home recently); Willem II averaging only 1.05 goals scored and 2.75 conceded
H2H: 3.6 goals per game on average in this fixture, AZ won 4 of last 8; most recent H2H was a 2-0 AZ away win
Stakes: AZ in title race (P1) — maximum motivation; Willem II in relegation battle (P16) but depleted and out of form away
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H averages 3.6 goals per game, though most recent meeting (Feb 2025) ended 2-0 to AZ. AZ hold the upper hand at home in this fixture with a 4-1 home win in Dec 2021 and consistent dominance at Alkmaar.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.