📊 Recent Form
Bahia
Corinthians
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Bahia at 51%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Bahia at 51% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 40% — a gap in our favour of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bahia and Corinthians played out a 1-1 draw in a tight Brasileirão encounter that left neither side with the win they'd have preferred. Corinthians struck early through Angileri in the eighth minute, courtesy of a setup from Andre, but Bahia levelled before the break when David Duarte converted from Rodrigo's assist in the 45th minute. The teams couldn't find a second wind after the restart, and the points were shared.
Our model had backed a 2-1 scoreline with Bahia favoured at 51% to win, meaning a draw came in at just 25% — a lean among plausible outcomes rather than a confident call. The 1-1 result was the least likely scenario in our pre-match thinking, so this was a clear miss. The model had banked on Bahia's home form and Corinthians' injury struggles to create a slight edge in an open game, factoring in history between the sides (their last two meetings had gone 1-2 to Bahia away, with an average of 2.8 goals per fixture). What actually unfolded was tighter and more defensive than expected—both teams left attacking plays on the table and settled for a point.
Neither side will be thrilled with a draw from this position, but the result wasn't out of step with the broader quality on show. Corinthians came with early intensity; Bahia showed resilience to get back level before the interval. After that, neither could unlock the other, and everyone went home with something. That's football sometimes—the prettiest predictions don't always survive contact with the pitch.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia Win Value | 11/8 2.38 | 40% | 51% | +11% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.30 | 29% | 25% | -4% |
| Corinthians Win | 2/1 3.00 | 31% | 24% | -7% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Corinthians mid-table (P13) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bahia solid at home (WWWDL), Corinthians strong overall but fatigued on just 2 days rest with key injuries. Bahia avg 1.44 scored, Corinthians avg 1.87 — but injury-impacted.
H2H: Last two meetings both ended 1-2 to Bahia (away), neutral overall dominance over 8 games, avg 2.8 goals per game.
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (P6 and P7), normal motivation — no relegation/promotion pressure skewing outcome.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last two H2H meetings both ended 2-1 to Bahia (at Corinthians' ground), with a 1-1 draw before that. H2H is neutral over 8 games but recent trend strongly favours Bahia. Average of 2.8 goals per game across the series points to moderate-to-open scoring.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.