📊 Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Bayer Leverkusen at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 21% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Bayer Leverkusen at 49% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 56% — a gap against us of 7 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 61/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bayer Leverkusen came away with a 2-1 win over SC Freiburg in a match that swung decisively in the second half. Freiburg struck first through Derry Lionel Scherhant in the 14th minute with Philipp Treu picking out the finish, but Leverkusen levelled just five minutes later when Ibrahim Maza converted following good work from Patrik Schick. The decisive moment came in the 76th minute when Schick turned provider, setting up Maza's cross for Schick to slot home and seal it—a neat role reversal that capped a strong second-half showing from the hosts.
Our model called a 2-1 Leverkusen win before kickoff, which is exactly how it played out. That said, the model assigned just a 49% probability to that outcome, reflecting a genuinely competitive fixture between two sides with plenty on the line. Freiburg's position at the top of the table and Leverkusen's chase for a top-four spot meant both teams had strong motivation, and the early Freiburg goal showed they weren't coming here to sit deep. The model had leaned toward over 2.5 goals and both sides scoring based on the respective attacking records and head-to-head history, and while we landed the exact scoreline, the match itself unfolded with that familiar pattern—early intensity, a Freiburg chance taken, then Leverkusen's greater depth showing through in the second period.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen Win | 4/6 1.70 | 56% | 49% | -7% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.25 | 22% | 21% | -1% |
| SC Freiburg Win Value | 10/3 4.35 | 22% | 30% | +8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Bayer Leverkusen chasing top-4 (P4)
- 🏆 SC Freiburg in title race (P1)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Bundesliga history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Leverkusen averaging 3.13 goals scored at home (WWW), Freiburg averaging 3.08 scored with 90% win rate overall but away form slightly softer
H2H: 4.1 avg goals/game across last 8, Leverkusen 4W-3D-1L at home, recent meetings all produced goals from both sides
Stakes: Leverkusen pushing for top-4 survival in Champions League places; Freiburg leading title charge — both sides highly motivated to perform
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 5 meetings produced scorelines of 3-3, 2-0, 2-2, 5-1, 3-2 — a consistently high-scoring fixture with both teams regularly on the scoresheet; Leverkusen hold an edge at home (5-1 in Oct 2025) but Freiburg have shown they can score in these games.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.