📊 Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Bayer Leverkusen a 66% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
Across 6 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 67/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bayer Leverkusen tore apart Union Berlin with a dominant 4-0 display at home, putting the ball in the net right from the off and never letting up. Fernández Carballo opened the scoring inside the first minute with Miguel Gutiérrez setting him up, then Medina doubled the lead just before the half-hour mark, again assisted by Gutiérrez. After the restart, Schick made it three on 48 minutes, and Maza added a fourth late on at 66, capping off a performance that went well beyond what anyone had pencilled in beforehand.
Our model predicted a 2-1 win for Leverkusen with a 66% probability attached to them claiming three points. We got the result direction right—Leverkusen did win—but we badly misjudged the margin. The forecast hinged on form readings that favoured the home side's firepower against Union's shaky away record, yet also factored in Leverkusen's underlying pressure and a historical pattern of tighter H2H contests. What actually unfolded was far more one-sided, with the visitors offering next to nothing in attack and the home team clinical from the first whistle.
In fairness to the model, it did back Leverkusen to take the points and to find the net multiple times. Where it undershot was the scale of the win. A 4-0 scoreline sits well outside the envelope of the pre-match expectation, though it underlines just how wide that envelope can be when a struggling side meets one in rampant form at home. It's a useful reminder that probabilities reflect likelihood, not guarantees—and that dominance on paper can look a lot different on the pitch.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen Win | 4/9 1.46 | 66% | 66% | ±0% |
| Draw | 4/1 5.03 | 19% | 21% | +2% |
| Union Berlin Win | 11/2 6.43 | 15% | 13% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Bayer Leverkusen in relegation danger (P14, only 0 pt cushion)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Bundesliga history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Leverkusen 78% win rate, strong home run (WWW); Union Berlin 20% win rate, inconsistent away form (WLLDLD)
H2H: Leverkusen dominant at home, 2-0 in last meeting at this venue, only 2 goals per game average in recent H2H
Stakes: Leverkusen under relegation pressure (P14, 0pt cushion) — high motivation to win at home; Union Berlin mid-table, normal motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Leverkusen have won 5 of last 8 meetings and are dominant at home — last two home H2H results were 2-0 and 0-0, suggesting Union Berlin struggle to score at the BayArena. Average of just 2 goals per game across recent H2H reinforces low-scoring expectation.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
