Bayern München dismantled Union Berlin 7-0 in a one-sided Bundesliga encounter that bore little resemblance to our pre-match forecast. Musiala opened the scoring in the 18th minute with Davies providing the assist, before Kane converted a penalty on 39 minutes to double the lead. Olise added a third just before halftime from Musiala's cross, then Kane grabbed a second early in the second half from Olise's assist. Saibari extended Bayern's advantage in the 70th minute, with Davies again instrumental, and Olise capped off a dominant display with two goals in quick succession from Bischof's crosses in the 73rd and 76th minutes.

Our model predicted a 3-0 Bayern win with 71% confidence in a Munich victory, so we got the result direction right but badly underestimated the margin. The pre-match picture — Bayern's strong home form, Union's severe injury crisis, and the gap in quality between the sides — pointed to a comfortable win, and that's what unfolded. What we didn't anticipate was the sheer scale of the performance. Bayern's attacking rhythm was relentless, Union offered almost nothing in return, and the hosts converted their chances with clinical efficiency. The clean sheet came through as expected, and the over 2.5 goals bet landed comfortably, but a 7-0 scoreline is well beyond what the model had weighted as likely.

This is a straightforward miss on magnitude. The underlying form and context supported a Bayern dominance, but our prediction didn't capture just how thoroughly the visitors would be overwhelmed. It's a useful reminder that even strong fundamentals don't always translate to precise score forecasts — sometimes a gap in class simply runs wider than the numbers suggest.