Belgium vs Senegal

Belgium and Senegal served up a dramatic finish to a match that swung wildly in both directions. Senegal came out swinging and took control early, with H. Diarra putting them ahead in the 25th minute. They doubled their advantage after the break when I. Sarr made it 2-0 in the 51st minute, assisted by M. Niakhate, and looked well on course to pull off a shock result. But Belgium clawed their way back into it. R. Lukaku scored in the 86th minute with help from T. Meunier to set up a tense finale, and Y. Tielemans levelled things in the 89th to force extra time. Tielemans then sealed it from the penalty spot deep into the additional period, giving Belgium a 3-2 win.

Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline with Belgium favoured at 43% to win, though a draw sat at 30% — a fair margin of plausible outcomes rather than a confident call. The actual result came in at 3-2 to Belgium, so we got the direction right but missed the exact score. Before kickoff, the model leaned on Belgium's solid home form and defensive record against Senegal's patchy away results, but hadn't fully accounted for how open this knockout tie would turn out. What unfolded was a far more chaotic and goal-heavy affair than the baseline lean suggested, with both sides finding the net freely and the match decided only by a late penalty in extra time.