📊 Recent Form
Belgium
Senegal
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Belgium edge it at 43% against 30% for the draw and 27% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 12 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 59/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Belgium and Senegal served up a dramatic finish to a match that swung wildly in both directions. Senegal came out swinging and took control early, with H. Diarra putting them ahead in the 25th minute. They doubled their advantage after the break when I. Sarr made it 2-0 in the 51st minute, assisted by M. Niakhate, and looked well on course to pull off a shock result. But Belgium clawed their way back into it. R. Lukaku scored in the 86th minute with help from T. Meunier to set up a tense finale, and Y. Tielemans levelled things in the 89th to force extra time. Tielemans then sealed it from the penalty spot deep into the additional period, giving Belgium a 3-2 win.
Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline with Belgium favoured at 43% to win, though a draw sat at 30% — a fair margin of plausible outcomes rather than a confident call. The actual result came in at 3-2 to Belgium, so we got the direction right but missed the exact score. Before kickoff, the model leaned on Belgium's solid home form and defensive record against Senegal's patchy away results, but hadn't fully accounted for how open this knockout tie would turn out. What unfolded was a far more chaotic and goal-heavy affair than the baseline lean suggested, with both sides finding the net freely and the match decided only by a late penalty in extra time.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium Win | 11/10 2.15 | 44% | 43% | -1% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 30% | +1% |
| Senegal Win | 11/4 3.69 | 27% | 27% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Belgium in strong home form (DDW) with low goals conceded (0.89 avg); Senegal poor away (LLDL) but high-scoring overall
H2H: Limited recent H2H data at World Cup level
Stakes: World Cup knockout-stage pressure motivates both sides equally; no rotation expected
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data at World Cup level between these sides; Senegal historically competitive against European opposition in major tournaments
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.