Benfica got the job done against Vitória SC with a 2-0 win at home, though they fell short of the scoreline our model had pencilled in beforehand. Samuel Dahl opened the scoring in the 24th minute with an assist from Vangelis Pavlidis, and the hosts wrapped it up through Heorhii Sudakov in the 75th, with Claudio Echeverri picking out the assist. It was a convincing performance from the favourites, but one goal lighter than expected — our model predicted 3-0, giving Benfica's win a 66% probability heading into kickoff.

The match played out largely as pre-match analysis suggested it might. Benfica came in chasing a top-two finish and came away with three points from a side sat in relegation danger and toothless on their travels. The hosts controlled proceedings and secured a clean sheet, both outcomes the model had flagged as likely. Where the prediction missed was in the final tally. Benfica's European commitments may well have played a role in the slightly more measured attacking performance — the template was there, the execution just landed one notch below forecast. The win keeps their push for the podium rolling; for Vitória SC, the defeat leaves them where they were: fighting to stay up.