Birmingham and Wolves served up a frantic first half that ended level at 2-2, with neither side able to pull clear despite the early chances falling to the visitors. Fer López fired Wolves ahead inside three minutes off Rodrigo Gomes's assist, but Birmingham hit back quickly through Jay Stansfield on 22 minutes after Patrick Roberts set him up. Wolves went back in front when Krejčí finished from André's cross on 31 minutes, only for Jackson Tchatchoua to deflect the ball past his own goalkeeper just five minutes later to restore parity. The second half didn't produce any further goals, leaving both sides with plenty to think about.

Our model had predicted a 1-2 win for Wolves, assigning a 35% chance to a Wolves victory and 31% to a draw — so while we leaned toward the visitors, the draw ranked as a plausible outcome from the start. The final 2-2 scoreline fell outside our most likely prediction, though it wasn't a wildly improbable result. Before kickoff, the model weighted Wolves heavily on the back of their promotion-hunt credentials and superior recent form, while Birmingham's mid-table position and patchy home record suggested limited threat. What actually unfolded was a competitive match with both sides trading blows — far tighter than the form sheet alone might've suggested, and one where Birmingham's attacking contribution was notably stronger than pre-match metrics implied.