📊 Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt
NEC Nijmegen
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Bodo/Glimt a 66% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Bodo/Glimt at 66% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 63% — a gap in our favour of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bodo/Glimt dominated a lopsided Champions League tie, running out 3-0 winners over a NEC Nijmegen side that faced an uphill task from the opening minutes. An early red card for Crettaz left the Dutch visitors a man down before they'd barely got going, and the hosts made that numerical advantage count. Bjorkan broke the deadlock in first-half stoppage time with an assist from Auklend, and Auklend himself doubled the lead moments later, setting up a second-half procession. Fonville's own goal in the 73rd minute put the result beyond doubt.
Our model called a Bodo/Glimt win at 66% probability—the most likely outcome, but far from a certainty given the margins involved. We predicted a 2-0 scoreline, which nailed the result direction but missed the final tally by one goal. The pre-match xG split (2.94 to 0.5 in Bodo/Glimt's favour) flagged a significant quality gap, and the match bore that out: the visitors simply couldn't compete, compounded by the early red card that turned tactical struggle into a numbers game Nijmegen couldn't win.
The third goal arrived via an own goal rather than open play, which tilted the final margin slightly beyond where the underlying balance suggested it might land. Still, a Bodo/Glimt win was always the clearest outcome on the data, and they delivered it convincingly.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 1/2 1.49 | 63% | 66% | +3% |
| Draw | 4/1 4.90 | 19% | 18% | -1% |
| NEC Nijmegen Win | 4/1 5.25 | 18% | 16% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Champions League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 1-3 (2026-08-19): Bodo/Glimt leading aggregate by 2. Bodo/Glimt needs to avoid losing by 3+ goals; NEC Nijmegen needs to win by 2+ goals (or force ET if win by exactly 2).
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bodo/Glimt xG 2.94 | NEC Nijmegen xG 0.5
Projected: 77% / 14% / 9%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.