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Serie A Sat 25 Apr 2026
We said Draw ✗ Missed
Final Score
0 – 2
Our prediction missed
Result
Exact score
BTTS
Over 2.5
CleverScores Prediction
1 – 1
Draw Low · 49%
Bologna
31%
Draw
31%
AS Roma
38%

🧭 How the Model Sees It

Nothing here clears 39%. AS Roma edge it at 38% against 31% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.

Note that the projected scoreline of 1–1 points to a draw while the probabilities favour AS Roma. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.

The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.

Confidence is filed as low at 49/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.

Built from the figures above — no separate commentary, so it cannot drift out of step with them. 8th Day Engine

📝 Match Recap

AS Roma swept past Bologna with a commanding 2-0 victory, with Daan Malen opening the scoring in just the seventh minute following an assist from Niccolo El Aynaoui. The early breakthrough set the tone for a match that rarely looked competitive thereafter. Malen would later turn provider before the interval, setting up El Aynaoui for Roma's second in the 45th minute to effectively seal the contest.

Our pre-match prediction of a 1-1 draw missed the mark considerably. The model had flagged Bologna's domestic struggles and Roma's inconsistency on the road, factors that seemed to point toward a cautious, low-scoring affair. The absence of key strikers like Dallinga and Dovbyk suggested limited attacking threat from both sides, reasoning that supported our draw forecast. What emerged instead was a Roma side that looked assured and clinical, with Malen and El Aynaoui combining for both goals in a display of incisive attacking football that belied the pre-match concerns about their firepower.

The margin of victory was more decisive than the underlying conditions suggested it might be. Bologna never truly threatened, and Roma's early goals removed any incentive for either team to take risks. While our assessment of the defensive frailties on both sides proved correct—the match remained relatively tidy defensively—we significantly underestimated Roma's capacity to capitalize on the chances they created. The prediction underperformed partly because form data and recent absences don't always account for how a team performs on a given matchday, a reminder that even thorough statistical foundations can be upended by execution on the pitch.

Written after the final whistle · 11 May 2026
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff

🔍 Key Stats

Form: Bologna struggling at home (WLLDL, avg 1.12 scored), Roma inconsistent away (LLDL, avg 2.03 scored overall but key strikers absent)
H2H: Limited recent data — historically competitive Serie A fixture, tends toward close margins
Stakes: Both teams mid-table with limited clear incentive — reduces risk-taking and favours a cautious, low-scoring draw
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.

⚔️ Head to Head

Limited recent H2H data available — historically close encounters in Serie A with neither side dominating, consistent with today's equal ELO and tight probability spread

🎲 Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.

Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.

CleverScore confidence: 49/99 · Low
Predictions are modelled estimates built from form data, head-to-head history, and contextual signals. Football is unpredictable — never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org

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