📊 Recent Form
Bologna
Sassuolo
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Bologna edge it at 43% against 32% for the draw and 25% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Bologna at 43% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 46% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bologna and Sassuolo served up a wild finish to a match that swung dramatically in the second half. Josh Doig put Sassuolo ahead early on in the 19th minute, but Bologna levelled through Roberto Piccoli's finish from Juan Miranda's assist just after the hour. Vasilije Adzic restored Sassuolo's lead in the 56th minute, only for Artem Dovbyk to draw Bologna level again deep into injury time at 90+1'. The drama didn't end there—Domenico Tedesco saw red in the 90+4' minute, leaving Bologna down to ten men as the dust settled on a 2-2 draw.
Our model called a 1-0 Bologna win with draw probability sitting at 32%, so the stalemate was in the mix but not the favoured outcome. Going in, the forecast leaned on Bologna's desperate need for points given their position, against Sassuolo's mid-table comfort and apparent lack of urgency. That shape held for stretches—the match did stay tight and competitive—but the actual goals came in a much livelier second half than anticipated. Both teams found the net twice, and the late drama with Dovbyk's leveller followed by Tedesco's red card painted a messier picture than the relatively controlled 1-0 we'd projected. It's one of those occasions where the underlying tension in the fixture was there, but the execution and flow played out differently.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna Win | 11/10 2.06 | 46% | 43% | -3% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.48 | 28% | 32% | +4% |
| Sassuolo Win | 11/4 3.69 | 26% | 25% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Bologna in relegation danger (P15, only 0 pt cushion)
- 😴 Sassuolo mid-table (P11) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bologna in poor run (LLLL before wins) but desperate for points; Sassuolo inconsistent with tired legs on 3 days rest and heavy injury list
H2H: 3 draws in last 5, recent Dec 2025 Bologna 1-1 Sassuolo; Bologna dominant overall but draws very common
Stakes: Bologna in relegation danger = maximum motivation boost; Sassuolo mid-table with nothing to play for = low intensity
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Three of the last five H2H meetings ended 1-1, and Bologna have won four of the last eight overall. Draw outcomes are the most recurring pattern in this fixture, and the most recent meeting (Dec 2025) was a 1-1 at Bologna.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
