📊 Recent Form
Bologna
Torino
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Bologna at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 28% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bologna and Torino played out a 1–1 draw in a match that saw early momentum prove fleeting and late drama undo an opening advantage. Bernardeschi gave Bologna the lead in the 14th minute, but the hosts couldn't extend their grip on the game. Torino levelled through Kulenovic in the 77th, with Mandragora providing the assist, to secure a share of the points.
Our model leaned towards a 2–1 Bologna win before kickoff, assigning a 28% probability to the draw that actually happened. The prediction was anchored on Bologna's dominance in the head-to-head record, their xG profile at home, and the narrative of a side fighting relegation danger facing a mid-table opponent with little to play for. None of that shaped the match. Bologna did start brightly—Bernardeschi's early strike looked like it might set the tone—but they failed to build on it. Torino came back into the game and levelled without needing to be at their sharpest, suggesting our model overweighted Bologna's motivational edge and underestimated Torino's capacity to scrape a result away from home.
It was the kind of game where two decent chances split ninety minutes and neither side could muster a decisive second goal. Our model missed on the scoreline and the result, but not wildly—a draw was always a credible outcome in what looked like a competitive fixture on paper.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna Win | 10/11 1.95 | 48% | 49% | +1% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 28% | +1% |
| Torino Win | 3/1 3.98 | 25% | 23% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Bologna in relegation danger (P16, only 0 pt cushion)
- 😴 Torino mid-table (P14) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bologna averaging just 0.57 goals scored lately but xG model favours them heavily at home; Torino average 0.75 away
H2H: Bologna dominant — 5 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in last 8; avg 2 goals per game
Stakes: Bologna in relegation danger (P16, 0pt cushion) = high motivation; Torino mid-table (P14) = low motivation, classic dead-rubber mentality
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Bologna heavily dominant in recent H2H — 5 wins from last 8 including a 3-2 and multiple 2-0 results; Torino's only win came away. Average of 2 goals per game suggests modest scoring with home goals leading.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
