Bolton came out swinging and made it count early on, with Dalby breaking the deadlock in the 14th minute before Gale added a second just eleven minutes later, courtesy of a McAtee assist. Preston pulled one back through Erabi in the 86th, set up by Vukcevic, but it came too late to change the outcome. Bolton took it 2-1.

Our model leaned Preston at 33% and backed a 0-1 scoreline, which meant we got the result direction wrong — Bolton winning wasn't our most likely outcome at 41%. The pre-match read had weighted Preston's away form and defensive vulnerability heavily, but Bolton's home solidity and recent form didn't translate into the tight, low-scoring contest we'd flagged. Instead, they came out ruthless in the opening quarter and got the job done before Preston could settle into the game. The late Erabi goal at least stopped it being a clean sheet, but by then Bolton had already built a commanding cushion.

The match didn't play out as the model expected. We'd factored in a draw as a genuine possibility given the Championship's competitive balance and the history between these sides, but Bolton's quick start and clinical finishing in that early window changed the shape of the game entirely. Preston's away struggles — flagged beforehand — showed up again, and despite the late goal, they couldn't mount a credible comeback. Not the result our model was banking on, but a reminder that early dominance and precision finishes matter more than pre-match form lines sometimes suggest.