Dortmund came through a chaotic Champions League knockout tie against Villarreal, winning 3-2 in a match that swung wildly across ninety minutes. An own goal from Renato Veiga handed Dortmund an early lead in the 53rd minute, but Villarreal struck back through Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González in the 66th, assisted by Georges Mikautadze. Dortmund regained control when Serhou Guirassy finished in the 80th, set up by Fábio Silva, then added a second from the spot five minutes later. Villarreal's late push saw Guirassy turn the ball into his own net deep in stoppage time, though it came too late to matter.

Our model leaned toward Dortmund at 60% win probability and predicted a 3-1 scoreline. The result direction proved correct — Dortmund did win — but the actual finish landed at 3-2, not 3-1. The higher-scoring nature of the tie reflected the pre-match setup we'd flagged: historically this fixture runs hot, and both teams came in with knockout stakes tightening the screw. Villarreal's defensive fragility and Dortmund's attacking threat suggested an open game, and that's exactly how it unfolded, even if the precise goal sequence threw in the kind of own-goal muddle that no model fully anticipates. Dortmund progressed, but it was scrappier than the cleaner scoreline we'd banked on.