📊 Recent Form
Botafogo
Gremio
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Botafogo at 58%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 21% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Botafogo at 58% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 54% — a gap in our favour of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 64/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo Win | 8/11 1.74 | 54% | 58% | +4% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.62 | 26% | 21% | -5% |
| Gremio Win | 4/1 4.80 | 20% | 21% | +1% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Gremio in relegation danger (P15, only 1 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Botafogo strong at home (DWW), averaging 1.83 goals scored and only 0.81 conceded; Gremio poor away (LLW) with 1.7 goals conceded per game
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 4.3 goals/game; last two H2H at this venue produced 3-2 and 0-0, recent away meetings saw 5-3 and 3-2
Stakes: Gremio in relegation danger adds motivation but away form undermines execution; Botafogo mid-table with nothing urgent but strong home momentum
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings split evenly (3-2-3) but goals are consistently high (4.3/game avg); Botafogo's home H2H results show both 3-2 wins and 0-0 draws, though recent trend favours attacking football with 5-3 and 3-2 in last two competitive meetings.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.