📊 Recent Form
Bournemouth
Sturm Graz
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Bournemouth at 57%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 23% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Bournemouth at 57% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 79% — a gap against us of 22 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bournemouth tore through Sturm Graz with a commanding 3-0 victory in what turned out to be a far more dominant display than our pre-match model had anticipated. Francisco Evanilson opened the scoring in the 43rd minute with a well-taken finish from Adam Smith's assist, giving the designated home side a crucial lead at the break. The second half saw Bournemouth turn up the intensity: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha added the second in the 76th minute, and Álvaro Rodríguez wrapped it up from the penalty spot in the 90+2nd minute to seal a comprehensive win that puts them in a strong position in the competition.
Our model had predicted a 2-1 Bournemouth win, assigning the result a 57% win probability heading into kickoff. We got the outcome direction right—Bournemouth were indeed favoured and delivered—but badly underestimated their margin. The call leaned on the expectation of a competitive, close-run Europa League knockout tie, which didn't pan out; Sturm Graz simply couldn't keep up once the match got going. It's a good reminder that single-goal predictions miss the occasional convincing performance, especially in knockout football where one team can simply step up and dominate. The facts were in our favour (Bournemouth were the clear side to back), but the scoreline tells a different story to the one we'd sketched out beforehand.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth Win | 1/5 1.19 | 79% | 57% | -22% |
| Draw Value | 6/1 7.00 | 13% | 23% | +10% |
| Sturm Graz Win Value | 12/1 13.00 | 8% | 20% | +12% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bournemouth inconsistent at home (LDWD), Sturm Graz alternating W/L away — both streaky
H2H: Limited data — first competitive meeting likely
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — full motivation both sides, no rotation expected
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no recent or significant head-to-head meetings to draw meaningful trends from
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.