Brann pulled off a well-earned upset at home, beating Bodo/Glimt 2-1 in a match that swung sharply against the run of play. Helmersen gave the visitors an early lead from Hauge's assist in the 14th minute, but Brann hit straight back four minutes later when Gudmundsson levelled from Castro's pass. The home side completed the turnaround just after the hour mark through Ingason's finish from Jean Holm's delivery. Ingason's evening ended badly when he was sent off in the 68th minute, leaving Brann to see out the final stretch with ten men — a task they managed without conceding again.

Our model came into the match leaning heavily toward a Bodo/Glimt win, pricing them at 55% and projecting a 1-3 scoreline. That lean was grounded in solid pre-match logic: Bodo/Glimt were flying high in the title race with strong recent form, while Brann had shown inconsistency and come off defeats to quality sides. The historical head-to-head tilted toward the visitors too, with their superior track record in this fixture. What actually happened, though, ran completely counter to that expectation. Brann's performance — particularly in the opening hour before the red card reshaped the contest — was sharper and more clinical than the model had anticipated. Sometimes the underdog just has the right day, and they did here. We got this one wrong, plain and simple.