📊 Recent Form
Brann
Ham-Kam
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Brann at 58%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 23% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Brann at 58% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 61% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Brann made light work of Ham-Kam with a commanding 3-0 victory that turned decisively in their favour after a first-half red card. Gjone's dismissal in the 33rd minute left Ham-Kam chasing the game, and Brann duly took control. Soltvedt broke the deadlock right before half-time with a finish in the 45+4th minute, then Holm added a second in the 73rd with help from Ingason. Finne sealed it deep into stoppage time in the 90+6th, finishing off a move built by Eriksen.
Our model had fancied a tighter affair — we went 2-1 to Brann — so while we called the winner correctly, we got the scoreline wrong. The pre-match edge clearly leaned toward Brann at 58% win probability, but a three-goal margin wasn't our base case. That said, the dismissal fundamentally shifted the shape of the contest in ways that don't show up in pre-match odds; the red card compounded an already difficult evening for the visitors. Brann's form suggested they'd be strong favourites heading in, and their dominance here stayed broadly in line with that picture — they just took it further than we'd predicted.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann Win | 8/15 1.53 | 61% | 58% | -3% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.25 | 22% | 23% | +1% |
| Ham-Kam Win | 9/2 5.40 | 17% | 19% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Brann scoring 2.35 avg with 60% win rate; Ham-Kam averaging 1.33 goals scored with only 30% win rate and mixed away form (WLLDWDD)
H2H: Brann dominant — 6 wins in last 7, avg 3 goals/game, high-scoring fixture history supports goals
Stakes: Both teams mid-table with no relegation/promotion pressure — normal motivation levels, no significant boost expected for either side
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Brann have won 6 of the last 7 meetings including a 5-1 away win in April 2026 and 3-1 at home in November 2025. Fixtures average 3 goals per game, making high-scoring outcomes historically likely in this matchup.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.