📊 Recent Form
Brann
Lillestrom
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Brann at 51%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 11 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Lillestrom came away with a 2-1 win at Brann, striking early and holding on despite a late rally from the home side. Vá opened the scoring inside the opening ten minutes, and Gulbrandsen doubled the lead by the 22nd minute to put the visitors firmly in control. Brann pulled one back through Finne late on—89th minute—but it wasn't enough to salvage anything from the match.
Our model had called a 2-1 scoreline heading into kickoff, which matched the final result perfectly on the numbers. However, it had leaned heavily toward a Brann win, giving them a 51% chance compared to just 22% for Lillestrom. The prediction missed the outcome direction cleanly, so while the score projection was spot on, the fundamentals that drove the lean were off the mark. Before the match, the expectation rested on Brann's home record and recent form, alongside Lillestrom's travels and defensive struggles away from home. That setup didn't play out as the model had weighted it—instead, Lillestrom got the job done and made light of being the underdog in this one.
The match itself followed the goal-heavy script we'd flagged, but the distribution across the teams didn't align with the pre-kickoff thinking. Lillestrom's away defense, expected to be a weak point, held up when it mattered most, and they took their chances ruthlessly in the first half. Brann had chances to close it, especially in that closing stretch, but couldn't find a way back in.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann Win | 5/6 1.82 | 51% | 51% | ±0% |
| Draw | 3/1 3.90 | 24% | 27% | +3% |
| Lillestrom Win | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 22% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Brann averaging 2.12 goals scored at home with recent wins; Lillestrom averaging only 1.08 goals scored but 1.91 conceded away
H2H: Brann unbeaten in last 7 (5W 2D), avg 2.9 goals per game — history favours goals
Stakes: Both teams mid-table, normal motivation, no relegation/promotion pressure skewing this
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Brann completely dominant in last 7 meetings with 5 wins and 2 draws — no Lillestrom win. Recent scorelines of 2-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-2, 2-0 confirm a consistent 2-goal pattern for Brann in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.