Brazil vs Haiti

Brazil dismantled Haiti 3-0 in a dominant World Cup group-stage performance that unfolded almost exactly as our model anticipated. Matheus Cunha opened the scoring in the 23rd minute and doubled Brazil's advantage with a second goal in the 36th, assisted by Vinicius Junior. The rout was completed in first-half stoppage time when Vinicius Junior added a third, set up by Lucas Paqueta. The 3-0 scoreline matched our pre-match prediction precisely, arriving at the outcome our model had tagged as the most likely at 86 percent probability for a Brazil victory.

The match tracked closely with the pre-match setup. Haiti's vulnerabilities away from home—flagged in their poor away form entering the fixture—were exposed by Brazil's attacking intensity and defensive solidity. Brazil's motivation to set a strong tone on home soil translated into the kind of early dominance that converted expected attacking threat into goals. The first-half rhythm, in which Brazil built a commanding lead before halftime, mirrored the attacking advantage the model had identified, underpinned by Brazil's xG of 2.92 against Haiti's limited ability to threaten.

This was a straightforward statement of superiority from the designated home side, with the gap in quality between the teams—already apparent in their ELO separation—laid bare by match-day execution. The prediction landed not because of prescience but because the underlying imbalance between the teams held firm across ninety minutes.