📊 Recent Form
Bulgaria
Montenegro
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts a draw at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 45% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have a draw at 45% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 29% — a gap in our favour of 16 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria Win | 15/8 2.82 | 33% | 28% | -5% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.17 | 29% | 45% | +16% |
| Montenegro Win | 6/4 2.45 | 38% | 27% | -11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bulgaria winless in last 2 (L, D), Montenegro unbeaten (W, D) but this is a low-stakes friendly
H2H: 2 draws, 2 Montenegro wins in last 4 — fixture is draw-prone, low-scoring (1.5 avg goals/game)
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive relevance for either side — motivation is limited, favouring a cautious, low-scoring draw
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Montenegro have the slight edge (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 Bulgaria wins) but all four meetings produced 3 or fewer goals, and two ended level — this fixture consistently trends toward tight, low-scoring results.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.