Cambodia vs Hong Kong
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 5 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambodia Win Value | 4/1 4.80 | 19% | 25% | +6% |
| Draw Value | 11/4 3.85 | 24% | 44% | +20% |
| Hong Kong Win | 4/6 1.67 | 57% | 31% | -26% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 5 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Hong Kong (57% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Cambodia winless in 4 (DLLL), averaging 0.65 goals scored; Hong Kong inconsistent away (LLLW in last 4 away)
H2H: 3 draws and 3 Hong Kong wins in last 6, average 2.3 goals/game, draw-prone pattern; last meeting was 1-1
Stakes: Friendly match, no competitive pressure on either side — classic nothing-to-play-for scenario favouring a draw
Betting: BTTS supported by both teams scoring in 3 of last 6 H2H meetings; Under 2.5 favoured given Cambodia's low attack output and Hong Kong's inconsistent away scoring
⚔️ Head to Head
3 of the last 6 H2H meetings ended in draws, including the most recent 1-1 in November 2025; when not drawing, Hong Kong have won (3-0, 3-0, 2-0), but home advantage and friendly context make a repeat of the 1-1 most likely.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 1-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Under 2.5 goals is favoured — Cambodia average only 0.65 goals scored per game and Hong Kong's away form is poor (LLLW), while the Poisson model projects just 0.79 and 0.75 xG respectively. The friendly context further reduces intensity, and the most recent H2H meeting also finished 1-1, consistent with a low-total outcome.