📊 Recent Form
Cambuur
Feyenoord
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Feyenoord at 57%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 17% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Feyenoord at 57% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 73% — a gap against us of 16 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 63/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Feyenoord came to Cambuur and delivered a convincing away performance, running out 5-2 winners in a match that got away from the hosts early. Zechiel opened the scoring in the 17th minute, and Valente added a second just nine minutes later with help from Diarra. An own goal from Jansen on 42 minutes made it three before halftime, then Ueda converted a penalty in first-half stoppage time to make it four. Cambuur pulled two back in the second half through El Arguioui, who scored twice—first in the 70th minute with an assist from Binder, then again in the 80th—but Zechiel rounded off the win with a fifth goal in the 83rd minute, setting up Lotomba's assist. By then the points were long gone.
Our model predicted a 0-3 scoreline and gave Feyenoord a 57% chance of winning, which meant we got the result direction right but were well wide of the actual score. The gap came down to Cambuur's attacking output in the second half. Before kickoff, the model had leaned toward a comfortable away win grounded in Feyenoord's dominant recent form and their perfect record against this opponent, balanced against Cambuur's defensive frailty and attack that'd been misfiring all season. That shape held—Feyenoord were superior and won with ease—but Cambuur showed more bite than the pre-match picture suggested they would, particularly once the game was already decided. The fine margins between a 0-3 defeat and a 2-5 one remind you that even when the outcome is fairly clear, the exact numbers can still slip away.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur Win Value | 8/1 9.20 | 10% | 26% | +16% |
| Draw | 9/2 5.60 | 17% | 17% | ±0% |
| Feyenoord Win | 2/7 1.28 | 73% | 57% | -16% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Cambuur in relegation danger (P18/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Cambuur LLLLWWL with avg 0.69 scored/2.47 conceded; Feyenoord DWWWWWW with avg 1.74 scored/0.83 conceded
H2H: Feyenoord won all 8 meetings, avg 3.4 goals/game, clear away dominance
Stakes: Cambuur in relegation danger (P18) but lack quality to convert pressure into goals against top opposition
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-3.
⚔️ Head to Head
Feyenoord have won all 8 head-to-head meetings with Cambuur, including a 4-1 and 3-0 in recent home fixtures for Cambuur — a pattern of heavy away dominance that strongly favours a multi-goal Feyenoord win here.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-3 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 0-3 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.