Canada vs Morocco

Morocco came to play and Canada had no answer. Ounahi opened the scoring in the 50th minute with a finish set up by Hakimi, then added a second in the 82nd courtesy of Diaz's assist. Rahimi sealed it in the 90+8th minute, also from Diaz, leaving the final score 3-0 to Morocco and Canada with nothing to show for their effort.

Our model leaned toward Morocco before kickoff—the 44% win probability reflected that—but predicted a tighter contest at 1-2. The reality was a more dominant display. We'd flagged Morocco's away form as solid and their defensive threat, but underestimated their cutting edge on the day. Canada, meanwhile, came in with decent home numbers on paper, yet couldn't translate that into any meaningful attacking threat when it mattered. The margin here tells the story better than any single stat: Morocco were clinical and Canada were blunt.

Getting the result direction right counts for something in a tournament knockout, but missing the scoreline by that distance is a miss we own. The model had weighted both teams to score and expected goals around the 3-goal mark, so the shut-out was the real departure from what we'd mapped out. Morocco's quality in transition and finishing proved the difference on the night.