📊 Recent Form
Cape Verde Islands
Bermuda
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Cape Verde Islands edge it at 39% against 39% for the draw and 22% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Cape Verde Islands at 39% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 89% — a gap against us of 50 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Verde Islands Win | 1/25 1.06 | 89% | 39% | -50% |
| Draw Value | 10/1 11.38 | 8% | 39% | +31% |
| Bermuda Win Value | 25/1 29.00 | 3% | 22% | +19% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 10 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Cape Verde Islands (89% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Cape Verde low-scoring but defensively resilient at home (DLW, recent scores 1-1, 0-0, 1-1); Bermuda lost both recent games 0-2 and 3-5 with 6.5 avg conceded
H2H: Limited data
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive stakes — motivation moderate for both sides, but Cape Verde playing at home provides edge
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.