Celje and Egnatia Rrogozhinë served up one of the most dramatic finishes in recent Champions League memory, eventually settling on a 1-1 draw after an extraordinary penalty shootout that stretched deep into extra time. The designated home side grabbed an early lead through an own goal by Hrka in the 21st minute, then Kvesic doubled their advantage at 34 minutes. Egnatia pulled one back through Smajli in the 114th minute, and from there the match descended into a frenzied penalty sequence that saw ten spot-kicks taken in the final moments—Kvesic adding a second-half penalty, then Seslar, Tutyskinas, Calusic, and Dukuly all converting from the spot for Celje, while Bitri, Xhemajli, Ndreca, and Ndreca all scored for Egnatia. The final whistle came with Celje having converted one more penalty than their visitors.

Our model had predicted a 2-1 Celje win, assigning a 27% probability to the draw that actually happened—the less likely of the three main outcomes in our pre-match thinking. The first leg's 3-3 scoreline had left the aggregate level heading into this second leg, and both teams' demonstrated ability to score against each other suggested the high-tempo attacking football would continue. In that respect the match delivered: it was wide open, competitive, and both sides showed real intent to break the deadlock. Where our model leaned toward a Celje win rather than a share of the spoils was a narrower call among genuinely plausible outcomes, and this result sat well within the range of possibilities we'd flagged. A frantic penalty shootout decided the tie's progression, a twist that no pre-match model can predict, but the underlying story—two evenly matched sides unwilling to give an inch—aligned with the quality we'd expected going in.