📊 Recent Form
Celtic
Ferencvarosi TC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Celtic at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Celtic's home advantage counted for nothing as Ferencvarosi TC dismantled them 3-1 in a Europa League knockout tie that punished every defensive lapse. Yusuf broke the deadlock in the 20th minute with an assist from Zachariassen, and though Baur levelled for Celtic before half-time courtesy of Tierney's pass, Ferencvarosi hit back immediately in first-half injury time when Zachariassen finished from Yusuf's setup. Arzani's third, also set up by Yusuf, sealed it early in the second half and left Celtic with no realistic path back into the tie.
Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline and rated Celtic as 54% favourites going in. Ferencvarosi's upset win sat at just 21% probability—a genuine long-odds outcome rather than a lean among close calls. The pre-match thinking hinged on Celtic's strong home record and the fact both teams had been scoring freely in their recent form, but Ferencvarosi's excellent away record and clinical finishing were always part of the picture. What actually happened was that Ferencvarosi's potency on the road proved sharper than the model weighted it, and Celtic's defence—particularly the transition play that undid them three times—cracked under pressure in ways the pre-match data didn't flag strongly enough. It's a clean miss, and one that shows even well-reasoned leans can get turned over by a team with the quality and ruthlessness to punish mistakes.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic Win | 4/6 1.70 | 56% | 54% | -2% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.10 | 23% | 25% | +2% |
| Ferencvarosi TC Win | 7/2 4.60 | 21% | 21% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Celtic 80% win rate, strong at home; Ferencvarosi TC 70% win rate, excellent away record and high scoring
H2H: 3 meetings average 3.3 goals, Celtic home dominant winning 2-0 and 2-3 in recent Parkhead/European ties
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — full intensity from both sides, no dead-rubber discount applied
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H shows a high-scoring trend averaging 3.3 goals per game across last 3 meetings; Celtic home dominant with 2 wins including a 2-0 at home, but Ferencvarosi TC have shown they can score in these fixtures.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.