📊 Recent Form
CF Montreal
Charlotte
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 38%. Charlotte edge it at 37% against 27% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Charlotte at 37% where the consensus of 5 bookmakers has 33% — a gap in our favour of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Charlotte ran out 2-1 winners at CF Montreal in a match that unfolded in the shape our model had called. Montreal struck first through Daniel Rios, assisted by Luca Petrasso, in the 34th minute, but Charlotte's response came swiftly. Liel Abada levelled just three minutes later with help from Allan Saint-Maximin, and the visitors took the lead for good when Idan Toklomati Jorno scored in the 81st minute off David Schnegg's assist.
Our model predicted a 1-2 scoreline with Charlotte at 37% to win—a lean among plausible outcomes rather than a confident forecast, given Montreal's home advantage in the historical record and the 27% draw probability built in. The match played out exactly as that prediction had it, which was a welcome bit of accuracy on a day when Montreal's recent form struggles (LDLDWDDLLD) looked set to bite them, while Charlotte's strong run (DWWDWLWWLW) delivered real end product. The head-to-head record between these sides told a complicated story too—Montreal had won five of their last eight meetings, yet Charlotte had won both of their most recent away visits, so the visitors coming out on top felt like a reasonable outcome within the range of expectation.
The goal sequence told the story: Montreal started bright and got their reward early, but Charlotte didn't panic and equalised almost immediately. From there, it became a game Charlotte controlled through to the finish, and that second goal in the 81st minute essentially sealed it. A solid night for the prediction, and a reminder that even when you nail the outcome, there's always more football to learn about how these teams stack up over a season.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 5 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal Win | 5/4 2.23 | 42% | 36% | -6% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.70 | 25% | 27% | +2% |
| Charlotte Win | 7/4 2.80 | 33% | 37% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: CF Montreal in terrible form (LDLDWDDLLD, 10% win rate, conceding 2.35/game); Charlotte in excellent form (DWWDWLWWLW, 60% win rate, 0.82 conceded/game)
H2H: Montreal historically dominant at home (5W in 8 H2H), but Charlotte won last away meeting 1-0 in Apr 2025 and won 2-0 at Charlotte in Oct 2024; avg 2.3 goals/game in H2H
Stakes: Both teams mid-table in MLS context with no extreme pressure, though Charlotte's form suggests strong motivation to push for playoff positioning
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
CF Montreal have been historically dominant at home in this fixture (5 wins in 8 meetings), but Charlotte have shown they can win away (0-1 in April 2025) and Montreal's current form represents a significant departure from their H2H historical strength.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.